Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast: GBP/AUD Stronger after Chinese Data

Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) Exchange Rate Jumps after Chinese Manufacturing Data

The Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate advanced over the weekend as China’s Manufacturing PMI fell flat, adding to calls for the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to introduce additional stimulus measures.
China’s manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.8 in January. This is the first time the measure has eased below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction for 2 1/2 years.
ANZ economists noted; ‘China still needs decent growth to add 100 million new jobs this year, plus China is entering a rapid disinflation process. We (think) the People’s Bank of China will cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points and cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points in the first quarter.’
The Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate was trading in the region of 1.9476.
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EUR/USD Forecast: bearish below 1.1440

After setting a new 11-year low at 1.1097 following Greek elections result last Monday, the EUR/USD pair spent the week in consolidative mode, finding finally sellers in the 1.1422 level, slightly below the 61.8% retracement of the post ECB-QE-announcement slide. As the week fades, the pair trades right below the 1.1300 mark, under pressure as dollar strengthens across the board, closing in the green for the first time in eight weeks.

The weekly chart shows that technical indicators maintain a strong bearish momentum in extreme oversold levels, which suggest there’s still room for further gains in correction mode, but are in no way confirming a bottom. In the daily chart, indicators have bounced from extreme oversold readings but remain deep in the red, whilst moving averages maintain their bearish slope well above current price, being the shortest, and the closest, 20 SMA around 1.1520. Price has been consolidating for most of these last days in a quite tight range, but as long as capped below 1.1440, 61.8% retracement of the above mentioned rally, the upside will likely remain limited. It will take some steady follow through above the mentioned 1.1520 to see the corrective movement extending over the upcoming days, eyeing tops early January lows in the 1.1750 price zone.
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Central Banks still on the makes, US NFP next

This past week did not lacked entertainment, although it was quite soft as just “minor” Central Banks played the currencies’ war.  The Singapore Central Bank eased its currency policy announcing it would take measures to slow the appreciation of the Singapore dollar. The Denmark one cut its rate for third time in two weeks, whilst Russia cut its benchmark from 17% to 15%, just one month after a surprise hike from 10% to 17%. There was no official announcement coming from Switzerland, but the EUR/CHF spiking 100 pips in an hour, almost daily basis, should lift suspects they are somehow working on weakening CHF.
Data was quite soft in Europe, with inflation in the EZ and Germany taking another step into deflation. In the US, macroeconomic readings were far from bright, except when it came to confidence: Americans are overly optimistic, despite the first year meeting of the FED brought nothing new.
The dollar continued its advance to multiyear highs against most rivals, with commodity currencies leading the slide, and EUR and JPY fighting back. But should be no surprise as both currencies in their crosses against the greenback had been largely oversold for months. At this point, seems more as some sort of consolidation/correction going on in both, in the middle of the dollar bullish trend.
The worse and the best word these days around the world is not growth, but “inflation.” Deflationary pressures in Europe triggered QE which finally decided to inject easy money into the markets sending local share markets strongly up. Low inflation in the US is the milestone to overcome for the FED to start rising rates.  There won’t be much on that front among majors economies next week, but there will be plenty of fundamental data that will provide information of how consumption is doing, and therefore where inflation is heading too. Everything will be read in regards of inflation, or at least most of it.
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OPEC oil output rises in January as key members stand firm: survey

LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC's oil supply has risen this month due to more Angolan exports and steady to higher output in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers, a Reuters survey showed, a sign key members are standing firm in refusing to prop up prices.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries at a November meeting decided to focus on market share rather than cutting output, despite concerns from members such as Iran and Venezuela about falling oil revenue.
Supply from OPEC has averaged 30.37 million barrels per day (bpd) in January, up from a revised 30.24 million bpd in December, according to the survey based on shipping data and information from sources at oil companies, OPEC and consultants.
At the Nov. 27 meeting, OPEC retained its output target of 30 million bpd, sending oil prices to a four-year low close to $71 a barrel. Crude since fell to a near six-year low of $45.19 on Jan. 13 and was trading above $49 on Friday.
OPEC Secretary General Abdulla al-Badri, speaking in London on Monday, defended the no-cut strategy and said prices may have reached a floor, despite oversupply. Other OPEC delegates have since echoed this message.
"Prices are stabilizing," said a delegate from a Gulf producer. "But the world economy is not very strong and stocks are too high."
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Wall St. closes down for January, Shake Shack rallies in debut

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks closed down on Friday after a volatile session as investors worried at the end of a rough month for the market about weak U.S. growth data and whether instability in Europe could hurt corporate earnings in the United States.
U.S. economic growth slowed sharply in the fourth quarter as weak business spending and a wider trade deficit offset the fastest pace of consumer spending since 2006.
This came after Greece's finance minister said the government would not cooperate with the European Union and International Monetary Fund mission.
A brief afternoon rally from rising oil prices failed to stick as investors, nervous about U.S. and global economies, fled to bonds from equities and even sold off utilities stocks, the worst performing sector on the day.
"It feels like a flight-to-safety trade on a month-end. People are putting money into assets that have done well this month," said Peter Coleman, head trader at ConvergEx Group in New York, who said Friday was a good reflection of the month.
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Forex - USD/CAD jumps over 1%, hits fresh 6-year highs

The U.S. dollar rose over 1% to fresh six-year highs against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, even as data showed that the U.S. economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the last quarter, as downbeat Canadian growth data weighed on the nation's currency.
USD/CAD hit 1.2750 during early U.S. trade, the pair's highest since March 2009; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2755, climbing 1.09%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2506, Thursday's low and resistance at 1.3063.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday that U.S. gross domestic product rose 2.6% in the last quarter of 2014, down from a previous estimate of 3.0% and from a growth rate of 5.0% in the three months to September.
The greenback remained supported after the Federal Reserve indicated this week that interest rates could start to rise around mid-year.
Meanwhile, a report by Statistics Canada showed that the country's GPD fell 0.2% in November, compared to expectations for a 0.1% downtick and after a 0.3% gain in October.
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Forex - EUR/USD off session highs after batch of U.S., E.Z. data

The euro erased gains against the U.S. dollar on Friday, despite tepid U.S. economic reports as earlier data from the euro zone failed to boost confidence in the bloc's economic recovery.
EUR/USD pulled away from 1.1364, the session high, to hold steady at 1.1308 during U.S. morning trade.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.1223, the high of January 27 and resistance at 1.1421, the high of January 27.
In a revised report, the University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index ticked down to 98.1 in January from 98.2 the previous month. Analysts had expected the index to remain unchanged this month.
The UoM also said its inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose to 2.5% this month from 2.4% in December.
A separate report showed that the Chicago purchasing managers' index rose to 59.4 this month from 58.8 in December, whose figure was revised up from a previously estimated reading of 58.3. Analysts had expected the index to fall to 57.5 in January.
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Selling pressure of banking stocks pulls down Vietnam's Hanoi stock market

HANOI, Jan. 30 (Xinhua) -- Selling pressure of banking stocks pulled down Vietnam's capital Hanoi stock market after rising in the previous week.
On Friday, HNX-Index, the benchmark of the Hanoi bourse lost 1. 3 points or 1.5 percent from the previous week's close.
The index witnessed two ups and three downs during the week, posting the lowest level of 85.56 points on Friday and the highest level of 87.23 points on Wednesday.
Last week, the HNX-Index fluctuated between 84.63 points and 86. 86 points.
The Hanoi bourse closed at 85.56 points on Friday, down 1.39 points or 1.6 percent against the previous trading session.

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Opinion: Better stock gains — for a privileged few

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — The New York Stock Exchange, should it follow through on a report that suggests it will introduce a midday stock auction, isn’t going to incur the wrath of Michael Lewis, who’s latest book, “Flash Boys,” argued that high-speed trading has rigged the markets against regular investors.
But the Big Board, now a unit of Intercontinental Exchange Inc. ICE, +0.42%  , isn’t exactly doing regular retail investors a favor. Its plan to create a midday auction will match big institutional sellers’ bids and offers for big blocks of shares in a bid to win more business away from dark pools where the same process happens off the tape and anonymously.

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Dutch companies to develop small scale LNG

Dutch companies VEKA Group, Deen Shipping and IUVENIS have joined forces with Peter Goedvolk, and will cooperate in the field of trade, transport and bunkering of small scale LNG in Northwest Europe.
Goedvolk recently established Count, a commodity, trading and logistics company.
VEKA Group and Deen Shipping previously launched an LNG company, LNG Bunkering Service B.V. and announced the construction of the first LNG bunker tanker, LNG PRIME.
The LNG PRIME will be active in the Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Antwerp (ARA) region, bunkering seagoing vessels as early as the start of 2016.

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Mattel Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2014 Financial Results

Fourth Quarter Highlights

• Worldwide net sales down 6% (including an unfavorable impact from changes in currency exchange rates of 3%);
• North American Region¹ gross sales down 2% and International Region gross sales down 5% (including an unfavorable impact from changes in currency exchange rates of 8%);
• Worldwide gross sales by core brands: Barbie^® down 12%; Hot Wheels^® up 5%; Fisher-Price^® down 11% and American Girl^® down 4%;
• Gross margin decreased 410 basis points of net sales, partially due to the acquisition of MEGA^® Brands;
• SG&A increased 390 basis points of net sales, including the impact of the acquisition of MEGA Brands;
• Operating income of $237.0 million compared to operating income of $479.3 million in the fourth quarter of 2013; and
• Earnings per share of $0.44 (includes a negative impact of $0.05 per share from MEGA Brands integration costs² and a negative tax impact of $0.03 per share) vs. prior year earnings per share of $1.07.

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USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Slide Continues, Pair Trading Above 1.26

USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Slide Continues, Pair Trading Above 1.26

The Canadian dollar continues to lose ground on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading above the 1.26 line and the pair has jumped over 200 points since early Wednesday. On the release front, US numbers were a mix. Unemployment Claims sparkled, dropping to 265 thousand. However, Pending Home Sales declined 3.7%. There are no Canadian releases on Thursday. On Friday, we’ll get a look at the only Canadian event of the week, GDP. The markets are expecting a decline of 0.1%. A weak reading could send the reeling loonie even lower. US employment numbers have improved as the economy chugs along. This was underscored by Unemployment Claims, which plunged to 265 thousand, down from 307 thousand a week earlier. This marked the indicator’s lowest level since April 2000. The news was not as positive from Pending Home Sales, which declined 3.7%, its worst reading in a year.

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Forex Market: EUR/USD daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw EUR/USD within the range of 1.1262-1.1366. The pair closed at 1.1335, gaining 0.41% on a daily basis.
At 8:42 GMT today EUR/USD was up 0.22% for the day to trade at 1.1342. The pair touched a daily high at 1.1353 at 8:35 GMT.
Fundamentals
Italian unemployment
The rate of unemployment in Italy probably reached a new record high level in December at 13.5%, according to the median forecast by experts, from 13.4% during the prior month. The number of unemployed people dropped 0.2% in November compared to October to reach 3.457 million. At the same time, employment in the country was 0.1% lower to 55.5% to reach 22.31 million persons. Youth unemployment rate climbed 0.6% to a new all-time high of 43.9% in November, according to the National Institute of Statistics.

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China Money Rate Completes Biggest Monthly Decline Since May

(Bloomberg) -- China’s benchmark money-market rate capped the biggest monthly drop since May after the central bank added funds to the financial system to offset capital outflows and meet a seasonal pickup in demand for cash.
The seven-day repurchase rate, a gauge of interbank funding availability, fell 79 basis points in January to 4.17 percent as of 4:30 p.m. in Shanghai, a weighted average from the National Interbank Funding Center shows. It climbed as high as 6.59 percent in January 2014, during the two weeks leading up to the Lunar New Year holiday. Demand for money climbs before and during the weeklong break, which begins Feb. 18 this year, as people exchange gifts and families get together for meals.

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India's foreign exchange reserves down by US $97.9 million to US $322 billion

India's foreign exchange reserves declined marginally by US $97.9 million to US $322.037 billion in the week to January 23, RBI said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the reserves had jumped by a whopping US $2.66 billion to US $322.135 billion, a new record high.
Foreign currency assets (FCAs), a major constituent of overall reserves, fell by US $19.7 million to US $297.510 billion in the reporting week, Reserve Bank data showed. FCAs, expressed in dollar terms, include the effect of appreciation and depreciation of non-US currencies such as the euro, pound and yen, held in reserves.

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Indicted money exchange ex-worker gets 3 years in U.S. prison

Jan 30 (Reuters) - A former information technology employee at the defunct digital currency exchange Liberty Reserve was sentenced on Friday to three years in a U.S. prison for his role in concealing what authorities described as a massive money laundering business for criminals worldwide.
Maxim Chukharev, 28, will likely serve approximately 10 months, with good behavior, after receiving credit for 10 months in a Costa Rican jail and 10 months in U.S. custody while awaiting trial, his lawyer said.
In court filings, prosecutors acknowledged that Chukharev was the "least culpable" of seven defendants charged with helping to operate Liberty Reserve, which authorities say was used almost exclusively by criminals to process money transfers connected to drug trafficking, child pornography, computer hacking and other crimes.

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Russia cuts interest rates from 17% to 15%

Russia has cut its main interest rate from 17% to 15% because inflation "is stabilising".

The rouble fell by more than 2% against the dollar following the central bank announcement.
Russia's economy has been suffering for a range of reasons, including economic sanctions by the West over its involvement in the crisis in Ukraine.
This week the government said it would put measures in place to try to stave off an economic crisis.
The measures included investing at least 2.34 trillion roubles ($35bn, £23bn) in the economy, following a collapse in oil prices and the rouble.

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Google 4Q Revenue Up But Misses Target: Declining Ad Prices, Exchange Rates, Spending on Projects

Google, in its fourth quarter earnings report, reported revenue of $18.1 billion, a figure that falls short of the expectations set by Wall Street analysts for the company.
While the $18.1 billion revenue for Google represents a 15 percent increase in revenue the company posted in the corresponding period last year, it comes up short against the analyst's revenue forecasts of $18.5 billion.
Shifting exchange rates, including a stronger U.S. dollar, negatively affected the revenue of the company. According to the company's earnings release, Google's revenue would have been higher by $541 million if the foreign exchange rates in the fourth quarter did not change compared with the previous quarter. If such was the case, then Google would have slightly surpassed Wall Street expectations.

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New Exchange Protects User Funds with Segregated Bank Accounts

Hong Kong-based exchange Gatecoin has launched after a lengthy setup process, promising segregated bank accounts for customers in 40 countries across five continents.
The company says it is the first to offer this kind of security, which is common in the non-crypto forex exchange world. This means customer funds are kept in separate bank accounts to the company's own funds, and thus can have funds returned in the case of a force majeure financial event that depletes company reserves.
Gatecoin is a licensed Money Services Operator in Hong Kong. It offers bitcoin trading in USD, EUR and HKD through its low-latency matching engine, and plans to implement Ripple in the next few weeks.

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Stocks markets to decline amid slowing growth

TORONTO - The Toronto stock market was set for a lower open Friday as the latest economic growth data pointed to slowing economic growth at the end of last year.
Statistics Canada says gross domestic product in November declined 0.2 per cent, worse than the flat showing that economists had expected. GDP had risen 0.3 per cent in the prior month. The agency said the drop extended across major sectors including manufacturing and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction.
There were also further indications of the damage caused to the energy and financial sectors by the collapse in oil prices.
The Canadian dollar fell to fresh six-year lows on the data, losing 0.45 of a cent to 78.85 cents US.

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