Showing posts with label AUD. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AUD. Show all posts

Sunday, 1 February 2015

Islamic finance looks to outgrow bad habits as it expands


After a year of landmark deals which are opening new markets for Islamic finance, the industry is under fresh pressure to address some of its shortcomings and prove that it is not just an imitation of conventional finance.
Born in its modern form during the 1970s, Islamic finance has boomed in the last few years on the back of strong economic growth in its core markets, the Gulf and southeast Asia.
Over the past 12 months it has shown signs of going global, as even non-Muslim countries have promoted it in the hope of luring cash-rich Islamic funds. Britain, Hong Kong and South Africa issued debut sovereign Islamic bonds; the industry's worldwide assets are now estimated to total over $2 trillion.
But with this success have come doubts over whether Islamic finance is living up to all of its principles. After all, it was launched not merely to make money, but to promote Muslim values such as equity, risk-sharing and social inclusion.
Those values may sometimes be getting lost as financial institutions engineer products which obey the letter of Islamic law - for example, a ban on interest payments - while mimicking conventional finance in many ways.
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Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Forecast: GBP/AUD Stronger after Chinese Data

Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) Exchange Rate Jumps after Chinese Manufacturing Data

The Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate advanced over the weekend as China’s Manufacturing PMI fell flat, adding to calls for the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) to introduce additional stimulus measures.
China’s manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.8 in January. This is the first time the measure has eased below the 50 mark separating growth from contraction for 2 1/2 years.
ANZ economists noted; ‘China still needs decent growth to add 100 million new jobs this year, plus China is entering a rapid disinflation process. We (think) the People’s Bank of China will cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points and cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points in the first quarter.’
The Pound Sterling to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate was trading in the region of 1.9476.
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Saturday, 31 January 2015

EUR/USD Forecast: bearish below 1.1440

After setting a new 11-year low at 1.1097 following Greek elections result last Monday, the EUR/USD pair spent the week in consolidative mode, finding finally sellers in the 1.1422 level, slightly below the 61.8% retracement of the post ECB-QE-announcement slide. As the week fades, the pair trades right below the 1.1300 mark, under pressure as dollar strengthens across the board, closing in the green for the first time in eight weeks.

The weekly chart shows that technical indicators maintain a strong bearish momentum in extreme oversold levels, which suggest there’s still room for further gains in correction mode, but are in no way confirming a bottom. In the daily chart, indicators have bounced from extreme oversold readings but remain deep in the red, whilst moving averages maintain their bearish slope well above current price, being the shortest, and the closest, 20 SMA around 1.1520. Price has been consolidating for most of these last days in a quite tight range, but as long as capped below 1.1440, 61.8% retracement of the above mentioned rally, the upside will likely remain limited. It will take some steady follow through above the mentioned 1.1520 to see the corrective movement extending over the upcoming days, eyeing tops early January lows in the 1.1750 price zone.

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Central Banks still on the makes, US NFP next


This past week did not lacked entertainment, although it was quite soft as just “minor” Central Banks played the currencies’ war.  The Singapore Central Bank eased its currency policy announcing it would take measures to slow the appreciation of the Singapore dollar. The Denmark one cut its rate for third time in two weeks, whilst Russia cut its benchmark from 17% to 15%, just one month after a surprise hike from 10% to 17%. There was no official announcement coming from Switzerland, but the EUR/CHF spiking 100 pips in an hour, almost daily basis, should lift suspects they are somehow working on weakening CHF.
Data was quite soft in Europe, with inflation in the EZ and Germany taking another step into deflation. In the US, macroeconomic readings were far from bright, except when it came to confidence: Americans are overly optimistic, despite the first year meeting of the FED brought nothing new.
The dollar continued its advance to multiyear highs against most rivals, with commodity currencies leading the slide, and EUR and JPY fighting back. But should be no surprise as both currencies in their crosses against the greenback had been largely oversold for months. At this point, seems more as some sort of consolidation/correction going on in both, in the middle of the dollar bullish trend.
The worse and the best word these days around the world is not growth, but “inflation.” Deflationary pressures in Europe triggered QE which finally decided to inject easy money into the markets sending local share markets strongly up. Low inflation in the US is the milestone to overcome for the FED to start rising rates.  There won’t be much on that front among majors economies next week, but there will be plenty of fundamental data that will provide information of how consumption is doing, and therefore where inflation is heading too. Everything will be read in regards of inflation, or at least most of it.
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Forex - USD/CAD jumps over 1%, hits fresh 6-year highs

The U.S. dollar rose over 1% to fresh six-year highs against its U.S. counterpart on Friday, even as data showed that the U.S. economy grew at a slower pace than expected in the last quarter, as downbeat Canadian growth data weighed on the nation's currency.
USD/CAD hit 1.2750 during early U.S. trade, the pair's highest since March 2009; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2755, climbing 1.09%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2506, Thursday's low and resistance at 1.3063.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday that U.S. gross domestic product rose 2.6% in the last quarter of 2014, down from a previous estimate of 3.0% and from a growth rate of 5.0% in the three months to September.
The greenback remained supported after the Federal Reserve indicated this week that interest rates could start to rise around mid-year.
Meanwhile, a report by Statistics Canada showed that the country's GPD fell 0.2% in November, compared to expectations for a 0.1% downtick and after a 0.3% gain in October.
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Forex - EUR/USD off session highs after batch of U.S., E.Z. data

The euro erased gains against the U.S. dollar on Friday, despite tepid U.S. economic reports as earlier data from the euro zone failed to boost confidence in the bloc's economic recovery.
EUR/USD pulled away from 1.1364, the session high, to hold steady at 1.1308 during U.S. morning trade.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.1223, the high of January 27 and resistance at 1.1421, the high of January 27.
In a revised report, the University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index ticked down to 98.1 in January from 98.2 the previous month. Analysts had expected the index to remain unchanged this month.
The UoM also said its inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose to 2.5% this month from 2.4% in December.
A separate report showed that the Chicago purchasing managers' index rose to 59.4 this month from 58.8 in December, whose figure was revised up from a previously estimated reading of 58.3. Analysts had expected the index to fall to 57.5 in January.
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Dollar index edges up, remains at multi-year highs after U.S. reports

The dollar edged higher changed against the other major currencies on Friday, as the release of tepid U.S. data failed to dampen optimism over the strength of the country's economic recovery.
In a revised report, the University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index ticked down to 98.1 in January from 98.2 the previous month, compared to expectations for an unchanged reading.
The UoM also said its inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose to 2.5% this month from 2.4% in December.
A separate report showed that the Chicago purchasing managers' index rose to 59.4 this month from 58.8 in December, whose figure was revised up from a previously estimated reading of 58.3. Analysts had expected the index to fall to 57.5 in January.
The data came after Bureau of Economic Analysis said U.S. gross domestic product rose 2.6% in the last quarter of 2014, down from a previous estimate of 3.0% and from a growth rate of 5.0% in the three months to September.
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Friday, 30 January 2015

Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) Exchange Rate Forecast: ‘Loonie’ Tumbles on GDP Data

he Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate advanced to 1.92 after GDP data out of the North American nation came in below forecasts.
Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted in November as manufacturing dropped the most since January 2009 and as the economy suffered from declines in mining and oil and gas extraction.
According to Statistics Canada the nation’s GDP contracted by -0.2% on a month on month basis, a figure that was worse than the unchanged 0.3%  forecast.
Earlier the Pound Sterling to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate surged to a new six year high on Friday as oil prices fell yet again.

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India's foreign exchange reserves down by US $97.9 million to US $322 billion

India's foreign exchange reserves declined marginally by US $97.9 million to US $322.037 billion in the week to January 23, RBI said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the reserves had jumped by a whopping US $2.66 billion to US $322.135 billion, a new record high.
Foreign currency assets (FCAs), a major constituent of overall reserves, fell by US $19.7 million to US $297.510 billion in the reporting week, Reserve Bank data showed. FCAs, expressed in dollar terms, include the effect of appreciation and depreciation of non-US currencies such as the euro, pound and yen, held in reserves.

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Russia cuts interest rates from 17% to 15%

Russia has cut its main interest rate from 17% to 15% because inflation "is stabilising".
The rouble fell by more than 2% against the dollar following the central bank announcement.
Russia's economy has been suffering for a range of reasons, including economic sanctions by the West over its involvement in the crisis in Ukraine.
This week the government said it would put measures in place to try to stave off an economic crisis.
The measures included investing at least 2.34 trillion roubles ($35bn, £23bn) in the economy, following a collapse in oil prices and the rouble.

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Google 4Q Revenue Up But Misses Target: Declining Ad Prices, Exchange Rates, Spending on Projects

Google, in its fourth quarter earnings report, reported revenue of $18.1 billion, a figure that falls short of the expectations set by Wall Street analysts for the company.
While the $18.1 billion revenue for Google represents a 15 percent increase in revenue the company posted in the corresponding period last year, it comes up short against the analyst's revenue forecasts of $18.5 billion.
Shifting exchange rates, including a stronger U.S. dollar, negatively affected the revenue of the company. According to the company's earnings release, Google's revenue would have been higher by $541 million if the foreign exchange rates in the fourth quarter did not change compared with the previous quarter. If such was the case, then Google would have slightly surpassed Wall Street expectations.

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UK fund manager predicts stock market plunge during next recession

One of the UK’s most successful hedge-fund managers has issued a stark warning that the global economy faces a downturn that will be “remembered in a hundred years” and leave stock markets facing devastation.
Crispin Odey, best known for anticipating that banks would go bust in 2008, made his gloomy predictions in a missive to clients of his Odey Asset Management business in which he warns that the European Central Bank’s €1.1tn (£730bn) bond-buying programme announced last week will not stave off a slump.
 He is not only pessimistic about the firepower of the central bank to inject life in to moribund eurozone markets but also about China, where recent data showed growth had slowed to 7.4%.

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Stock markets end a downbeat January

Both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 ended the month down by more than 3%.

Shares of hamburger chain Shake Shack sizzled on Friday following its IPO while Amazon’s rallied after a strong earnings report. But a few bright spots couldn’t ward off another day of losses for the stock market, which closed out January in the red. Concerns about weak domestic economic growth weighed down the market on Friday after the Commerce Department said that U.S. gross domestic product grew at a lower-than-expected annual rate of 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2014 — down from 5% during the previous quarter. Friday also brought renewed concern over economic stability in Europe, where Greece’s new finance minister said the country would not negotiate new bailout terms with the European Union and International Monetary Fund.
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Belarusian banks resume online exchange operations

MINSK, 28 January (BelTA) - Belarusian banks are resuming online exchange operations on bank cards, BelTA has learned.

Alfa Bank (Belarus) informs it will be back online for Alfa Click and Alfa Mobile operations on bank cards denominated in Belarusian rubles on 2 February 2015. 


On 26 January Priorbank lifted restrictions on online trading in Belarusian-denominated debit cards in the national segment.


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Waiting for the Fed

EUR/USD: heading towards 1.10 in very near term
In recent weeks, the EUR/USD has corrected far more rapidly to reach 1.12. Developments have accelerated in the eurozone, from the Swiss National Bank (SWB) withdrawing its floor rate and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) announcement of bigger-than expected Quantitative Easing (QE)), to Syriza’s sweeping victory in the Greek elections. All these events accelerated the EUR/USD’s fall, with a low at 1.11.
The ECB’s asset purchase programme of the ECB, it was bigger than expected at EUR 1,140bn through to September 2016, or EUR 60bn per month, with a possible extension if inflation does not recover near the 2% official target.

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Google misses revenue targets: spends too much on Glass?

Google has announced its fourth quarter earnings. Despite posting a 15 per cent growth in revenue compared to the same period a year ago, the results failed to reach Wall Street analyst targets, marking the fifth consecutive quarter the search giant has fallen short of estimates.
In the fourth quarter, revenue minus traffic acquisition costs was $14.48bn, compared to the $14.61bn analysts were predicting, according to Forbes. Gross revenue was $18.1bn versus estimates of $18.45bn, whilst adjusted earnings per share of $6.88 missed analysts' expectations of $7.11. Google's full year revenue for 2014 was $66bn, up 19 per cent year on year.

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Asia Pacific Market: Stocks fall on profit booking, weak offshore cues

Pacific share market ended down on Thursday, 29 January 2015, as participants' locked-in recent gains in bluechip stocks after the US Federal Reserve unexpectedly lifted its view on the economy, signaling that the US central bank remains firmly on track with plans to raise interest rates this year.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.1% to 140.79. Key benchmark indices in New Zealand, Japan, Taiwan, South Korea, China, Hong Kong, and Malaysia and fell by 0.54% to 1.31% while Singapore Strait Times ended steady.
Among major regional bourses
Australia market rises for sixth straight session
The Australian share market ended higher, registering sixth session of consecutive rise, as gains in utilities, financial, material and consumer goods stocks were more than offset by losses in energy, technology, and bullion counters. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index and the broader All Ordinaries Index both rose by 0.3% to 5569.50 and 5532.20, respectively.
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UPDATE 2-Nomura's quarterly profit boosted by strong share market


* Q3 profit Y70 bln yen vs Y39.5 bln analyst view
* Retail pretax income Y50.5 bln, strongest in six quarters
* Fixed income falls, overseas ops post loss (adds analyst comments, recasts)
TOKYO, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Nomura Holdings Inc reported a 45 percent rise in third-quarter net profits on Thursday, the biggest jump in its quarterly profits in a year, thanks to a strong performance by its retail equity business.
Nomura, Japan's largest investment bank and brokerage, has benefited along with nearest rival Daiwa Securities Group Inc from a renewed appetite for equities which propelled the Nikkei index to a 7-1/2 year high in the period.

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Daily FX Trading Update: Japanese Inflation Figures Fall Short – Jan 30, 2015

The US dollar was able to advance against most of its FX trading counterparts when risk aversion extended its stay in the currency market. Traders are also increasing their long dollar bets after the FOMC retained its hawkish bias earlier this week. Data from the US economy was mixed, as the initial jobless claims showed a better than expected 265K reading versus the projected 301K figure while the pending home sales report marked a 3.7% decline. For today, the US advanced GDP reading is due and another strong figure might lead to more gains for the dollar. Analysts are expecting to see a 3.0% growth figure for Q4.
The euro recovered slightly in recent FX trading, despite weaker than expected data from Germany. The preliminary CPI showed a 1.0% decline instead of the projected 0.8% drop while the unemployment change report showed a mere 9K drop in joblessness. Apart from that, the previous month’s reading was downgraded to show a smaller decline in unemployment. German retail sales and French consumer spending figures are up for release today, with the former likely to show a 0.4% gain and the latter to print a 0.3% uptick. Also up for release are the Spanish flash GDP and CPI figures, along with the euro zone CPI flash estimates.

Gold regains ground as dollar softens, U.S. data ahead

Gold prices rose on Friday, easing off two-week lows hit after upbeat U.S. jobless claims data and the Federal Reserve's most recent policy statement, while investors eyed the release of additional U.S. economic reports due later in the day.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery were up 0.46% to $1,262.10.
The April contract ended Thursday's session 2.43% lower at $1,255.90 an ounce.
Gold futures dropped after the U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits decreased by 43,000 to 265,000 last week. Analysts had expected initial jobless claims to decline by 8,000 to 300,000 last week.

The upbeat data added to optimism over the strength of the economy and fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to raise rates sooner than previously thought.
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