Friday, 30 January 2015

Dollar softens but holds near multi-year highs ahead of U.S. data

The dollar lost some ground but remained with close distance of a more than 11-year peak against the other major currencies on Friday, as investors awaited the release of fourth-quarter U.S. economic growth data, as well as additional U.S. reports due later in the day.
The dollar remained supported after the Federal Reserve indicated this week that interest rates could start to rise around mid-year.
The greenback was also boosted by data on Thursday showing that U.S. jobless claims fell to the lowest level since 2000 last week.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.10% to 94.90, not far from last Friday's more than 11-year highs of 95.77.
EUR/USD was almost unchanged at 1.1320 after Eurostat reported that the annual rate of euro zone inflation fell by 0.6% in January, after a 0.2% slip in December. Economists had expected an annual decline of 0.5%.
Core inflation, which strips out volatile measures such as food and energy costs, rose 0.5% on a year-over-year basis, but was still well below the European Central Bank's target of close to, but just under 2%.
In a separate report, Eurostat said the euro zone’s unemployment rate ticked down to 11.4% in December from 11.5% the previous month, confounding expectations for the rate to remain unchanged.
Earlier Friday, official data showed that French consumer spending increased by 1.5% in December, exceeding expectations for a 0.2% rise, while a separate report showed that Spanish GDP rose 0.7% in the fourth quarter of 2014, above expectations for a 0.6% gain.
In Germany, retail sales gained 0.2% last month, official data showed, disappointing expectations for a 0.3% rise.
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Declines in RMB spot prices hint at downward pressure

The efforts of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to stabilize the currency rates did not hinder the market from testing how low the renminbi can go during the last week of January.
The renminbi plummeted by nearly 2%–the maximum trading range permitted by regulators–during the Jan. 29 session after the PBOC set the daily reference price of the renminbi against the US dollar 0.0053 yuan (US$0.0008) lower to 6.1335 yuan (US$0.98).
It was the third nearly 2% drop during the four sessions of the week despite the PBOC's reference price showing a rise of 0.0049 yuan (US$0.0008) during that period.
The Chinese currency has shed 3.5% against the greenback in the spot market for the month as of Jan. 29 and saw a record 1.95% intra-session decline on Jan. 28.
Although the PBOC attempts to stabilize the price of the renminbi through the management of the daily mid-point price for the foreign exchange market, analysts said that the nearly 2% declines during recent sessions showed the bearish sentiment toward the Chinese currency.
They also said the concern that central banks around the world may decide to weaken their currencies after several countries unexpectedly introduced monetary easing measures.
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Crude oil trading outlook: futures head for seventh monthly loss amid glut

West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude were headed for the longest monthly losing streak since January 2009 as rising US crude oil output and inventories exacerbated worries of a global supply overhang at times of slowing economic growth. A firm dollar also weighed.
US crude for delivery in March rose 0.22% to $44.63 per barrel by 8:30 GMT, having shifted in a narrow daily range of $44.74-$44.43. The contract rose 0.18% yesterday to $44.53, but not before it fell to $43.58, the lowest since March 2009.
Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent for settlement in the same month slid 0.22% to $49.02 a barrel, ranging between $49.24 and $48.76 for the day. The European benchmark crude rose by 1.36% to $49.13 on Thursday, settling at a premium of $4.60 to its US counterpart. The gap narrowed to $4.39 on Friday.
Oil prices extended losses for a seventh month after US production surged to the highest in more than three decades, while OPEC stood firm and denied an obligation to normalize prices by cutting its own output. Saudi Arabia’s King Salman, who earlier in January succeeded the deceased King Abdullah, kept Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi at his post, signaling he will adopt no change to the kingdom’s oil policy. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s leading producer, steered the group into retaining its production quota at 30 million bpd at a November 27th meeting in Vienna, in a push to defend market share and curb US shale supply.
US crude output jumped by 27 000 barrels per day to 9.213 million bpd in the week ended January 23rd, a record for weekly statistics tracked since January 1983. The Energy Information Administration also reported that US crude supplies surged by 8.874 million barrels in the week ended January 23rd to 406.7 million, the highest on weekly data spanning back to August 1982.
Inventories at the Cushing, Oklahoma storage hub rose to 38.9 million barrels, from 36.8 million during the preceding period. This was an eight consecutive weekly jump, pushing supplies to the highest since January 2014.
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Forex Market: USD/CAD daily trading forecast

Yesterday’s trade saw USD/CAD within the range of 1.2507-1.2678. The daily high has also been the highest level since March 18th 2009, when a high of 1.2755 was recorded. The pair closed at 1.2617, gaining 0.64% on a daily basis.
At 9:20 GMT today USD/CAD was up 0.28% for the day to trade at 1.2652. The pair broke the first key weekly resistance level and touched a daily high at 1.2663 at 9:05 GMT.

Fundamentals

United States

Gross Domestic Product – preliminary estimate The preliminary estimate of the US Gross Domestic Product probably pointed to an annualized rate of growth of 3.3% in the fourth quarter of the year. The final GDP estimate for Q3, reported on December 23rd, pointed to an annual growth of 5.0%. The latter has been the highest growth rate since Q3 2003, which reflected an upturn in consumer spending and investment. Real personal consumption expenditures rose 3.2% in the third quarter, compared to a 2.5% increase in Q2. Real non-residential fixed investment increased 8.9% in Q3, following an increase of 9.7% in the second quarter. Real exports of goods and services were up 4.5% in the third quarter, compared to an increase of 11.1% in Q2, while real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment expanded 9.9%, after a decrease of 0.9% in the second quarter, according to data by the US Department of Commerce.
In quarterly terms, US economy probably expanded 1.0% in Q4, following a final growth rate of 1.4% in Q3, which was reported on December 23rd.
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Thursday, 29 January 2015

Stock Market News for January 29, 2015 - Market News

Benchmarks eroded initial gains to end in the red as another decline in oil prices offset the positive impact of Apple's record earnings results and the Fed's encouraging view on economy and labor market. After concluding its two-day meeting on Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) provided a positive picture regarding economic growth and labor market, and also maintained it would remain "patient" before hiking interest rate.

For a look at the issues currently facing the markets, make sure to read today's  Ahead of Wall Street  article
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4 0 inShare Link Comment Investor Alert FREE Access to Cramer's $2.7 Million Charitable Trust Portfolio Stock Markets Surge in Late Rally as Volatility Causes Waves

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Volatility has quickly become the new normal on Wall Street. Thursday's session was characterized by blink-and-you'll-miss-it turns in direction with all benchmark indexes posting gains by the afternoon session after losses earlier.
The S&P 500 had recovered from losses by the afternoon, adding 1%. The Nasdaq was up 0.94%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.25%, boosted by a jump in McDonald's  (MCD) shares. The world's largest fast food chain was more than 5% higher after announcing that CEO Don Thompson would be leaving the company. Thompson had held the position since July 2012 during some of the its worst years of draining sales and weak profits. 
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Tel Aviv Stock Exchange Weekly Review: 25-29 January 2015

Trading on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE) during the last week of January was characterized by a mix trend in all the leading share indices; TA-Oil and gas Index made notable increase of 6.0%; Trading commences in derivatives on the TA-100 Index
TEL AVIV, Israel, January 29, 2015 /PRNewswire/ --
TA-25  
The TA-25 index decreased 0.5% over the week and decreased 1.2% since the beginning of the year, after an increase of 10.2% for the whole of 2014.
TA-100  
The TA-100 index decreased 0.1% over the week and decreased 1.5% since the beginning of the year, after an increase of 6.7% for the whole of 2014.

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