Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) Exchange Rate Forecast: German Retail Sales Jump, Canadian GDP, Eurozone CPI, Unemployment Rate Ahead

The Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) exchange rate recorded gains early in Friday’s European session after German Retail Sales reached higher than forecast levels.
Annual Retail Sales were pulled out of the -1.0% contraction to +4.0%. Economists had expected a smaller 3.6%
Earlier… The Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD) exchange rate recorded gains in the second half of Thursday’s European trading after mixed German data and oil price declines.

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Gold regains ground as dollar softens, U.S. data ahead

Gold prices rose on Friday, easing off two-week lows hit after upbeat U.S. jobless claims data and the Federal Reserve's most recent policy statement, while investors eyed the release of additional U.S. economic reports due later in the day.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery were up 0.46% to $1,262.10.
The April contract ended Thursday's session 2.43% lower at $1,255.90 an ounce.
Gold futures dropped after the U.S. Department of Labor reported on Thursday that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits decreased by 43,000 to 265,000 last week. Analysts had expected initial jobless claims to decline by 8,000 to 300,000 last week.

The upbeat data added to optimism over the strength of the economy and fuelled expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to raise rates sooner than previously thought.
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Gold prices slightly weaker in Asia with focus on Fed meeting

Gold prices eased on Wednesday with investors looking ahead to comments from the Federal Reserve on the prospects for a rate hike this year.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery eased 0.05% to trade at $1,292.30 a troy ounce.

Overnight, gold erased losses to hit the highest levels of the session on Tuesday, after data showed that U.S. durable goods orders fell unexpectedly in December, fuelling concerns over the strength of the economy.

Prices fell by as much as $7.10 earlier to hit a daily low of $1,273.30, the weakest level since January 19.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery fell 0.03% at $18.078 a troy ounce.

In a report, the U.S. Commerce Department said that total durable goods orders, which include transportation items, fell by 3.4% last month, compared to expectations for a gain of 0.5%.
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Russia downgraded to junk status for first time in decade

S&P says downgrade caused by reduced flexibility to cut interest rates and weakening of financial system as oil price drops

Russia’s credit rating has been downgraded to junk status for the first time in a decade due to the collapsing oil price, the tumbling value of the rouble and sanctions imposed because of its intervention in Ukraine.
Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s said the downgrade was caused by the country’s reduced flexibility to cut interest rates and a weakening of the financial system.
The ratings agency said the Central Bank of Russia “faces increasingly difficult monetary policy decisions while also trying to support sustainable GDP growth”. It added: “These challenges result from the inflationary effects of exchange rate depreciation and sanctions from the west as well as counter-sanctions imposed by Russia.”
Attempts to shore up the value of the rouble have had only a temporary effect, Standard & Poor’s said, noting that the 750 basis point rise in interest rates last month to take interest rates up to 17% had only a limited impact on the rouble-dollar exchange rate.
“The rouble briefly appreciated against the dollar but has since continued to depreciate, reaching about 66 roubles to the dollar, compared to about 35 a year ago,” S&P said. The move pushed the rouble lower against the US currency on Monday , at 67 per dollar.
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Gold prices set to rise on financial markets uncertainty

Gold prices are set to rise next week, buoyed by the uncertainty in the financial markets following the Canadian and European central bank actions.
But the gold markets could witness some consolidation following a strong start to the year, analysts said.
Traders will be tracking the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision, due on 28 January, and its impact on the US dollar next week.
The demand for dollar-denominated commodities such as gold typically weakens on a stronger greenback as it makes the metal more expensive for holders of other currencies, lowering its hedge appeal.
Analysts' take
Capital Economics said it was bullish on gold heading into next week, stating that recent global central banks' moves had sparked some uncertainty in the financial markets.
The firm added that lower bond yields, and negative bond yields in Europe, will continue to support the gold market next week.
Howard Wen, commodity analyst from HSBC, told Kitco News that because of its strong momentum, gold prices do have room to climb higher, but that he expects the market to see a bit of consolidation after a rally in prices this year.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, told Kitco that the metal should maintain its momentum as long as it holds above the 200-day moving average, which comes in at $1,256.40 an ounce.
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Nigeria: 'Economy - Financial Markets At Risk in 2015'

Lagos — United Capital Plc, formerly UBA Capital, has said the Nigerian economy is to face one of the most difficult times in history as global crude oil prices, a key anchor for fiscal and macroeconomic stability, continue on a downward trajectory this year.
Group Chief Executive Officer of United Capital Plc, Mrs. Oluwatoyin Sanni, stated this while unveiling the firm's research work on the Nigerian economy and financial markets for 2015 titled 'A Tale of Two Halves' in Lagos yesterday.
Sanni who said the financial markets are likely to be more challenging relative to 2014, itemised four major factors to shape the markets this year.
The factors, according to her, are post-election scenarios, aggressive tightening by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), variability in foreign portfolio flows and the downward trajectory of crude oil prices.
She said, the factors are largely expected to dictate movements in both equity and fixed income markets though in different degrees during the year.
The report believed that the Nigerian fixed income market mirrored sentiment's that impacted emerging markets fund flow in 2014.
The report submitted that: "With the US Fed's tapering in full gear, foreign portfolio inflows into the fixed income market receded sharply in first quarter pressuring yields to the upside. However, the stability witnessed in the Naira/USD as well as the sustained single digit inflation level ensured sizeable amounts of foreign investors' portfolio flow into naira fixed income assets."
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WTI, Brent oil futures turn higher after bullish El-Badri comments

Crude oil futures erased losses to hit the highest levels of the session on Monday, as investors reacted to bullish comments made by OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in March tacked on 35 cents, or 0.78%, to trade at $45.95 a barrel during U.S. morning hours.

Nymex oil fell by as much as $1.23 to hit a session low of $44.36 earlier, a level not seen since March 2009.

Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for March delivery inched up 27 cents, or 0.55%, to trade at $49.06 a barrel. Earlier in the day, Brent touched a low of $47.59, down $1.20.

Oil prices erased losses after El-Badri said he is open to meeting with non-OPEC producers to balance the market.
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Gold prices flat in Asia as euro concerns wane, eyes on U.S.

Gold prices traded mosstly flat on Tuesday in early Asia as immediate concerns about Greece's exit from the euro zone waned and investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve and U.S. data this week.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for April delivery rose 0.01% to trade at $1,281.90 a troy ounce.

Also on the Comex, silver futures for March delivery rose 0.12% to trade at $17.930 a troy ounce.

Elsewhere in metals trading, copper for March fell 0.07% to trade at $2.541 a pound.

Overnight, gold fell more than 1% on Monday, as appetite for safe-haven assets weakened after jitters over the Greek election diminished.

Greek leftist party Syriza formed a coalition government with the right-wing Independent Greeks party on Monday. Syriza won 149 seats in Greece’s 300-seat parliament, while the Independent Greeks took 13 seats, giving them a comfortable governing majority.
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FXCM considers exiting some countries, is seeking negative balances

The Wall Street Journal reports that FXCM is considering sales of non-core assets to help repay the $300 million loan it was forced to accept under distressed conditions last week.

Shares of the company are down 85% since mid-month and declined nearly 30% on Friday.

They said FXCM is “reviewing countries where it offers currency trading, with an eye toward possibly lopping off jurisdictions where capital requirements and other costs are too onerous, one of the people said.”

There is nowhere where capital costs are higher than the US.

The WSJ reports that a leading contender to be sold is FXCM’s minority stake in FastMatch Inc., a separate company that operates an electronic currency-trading platform. FastMatch matches buy and sell orders among banks, hedge funds and other asset managers. The company estimates its share is worth roughly $70 million.

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Standard Bank's metals chief Coupland goes on temporary leave

Standard Bank Plc's charismatic co-head of commodities Jim Coupland is on temporary leave for personal reasons, his counterpart Mark Buncombe to take over day-to-day reins of one of the world's top metals banks, the bank said on Friday.
A bank representative did not specify a date for the return of Coupland, 57, who started Standard's base metals futures trading business two decades ago and made it one of the first Western banks to break into China.
Coupland goes on leave at a challenging time for Standard Bank as it seeks to recoup millions of dollars in losses from a metal financing scandal in China's Qingdao port that rocked markets last year.
Standard Bank's exposure to the purported fraud was about $170 million worth of aluminium, but the co-chief executive has said it was "too early" to tell whether or not further writedowns were needed. The bank is a subsidiary of Standard Bank Group, Africa's largest lender.
Coupland did not return calls seeking comment.
Emails sent to his work address came back with an out of office reply saying: "I am currently on leave and have limited access to email".
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Exclusive: USDA Secretary orders update of animal welfare research strategy

CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack has directed agency staff to create and deliver an updated Animal Welfare Strategy plan within 60 days, according to an internal email reviewed by Reuters.
The emailed memo from Chavonda Jacobs-Young, head of the agency's Agricultural Research Service, was sent to all Animal Research Service employees on Friday afternoon in response to recent media reports over controversial animal welfare conditions at its U.S. Meat Animal Research Center in Nebraska.
The new strategy will include updated training for government employees and others who work with animals in the service's research labs, according to the email. In addition, an independent panel will be convened to review the group's animal handling protocols, policies and research practices.
What specific training steps would be implemented, and who would be on the independent review panel, is not known. Animal Research Service officials could not be reached for comment on Friday evening.
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Gold pulls away from 5-month highs as ECB rally subsides

Gold prices fell on Friday, pulling away from the previous session's five-month highs hit following news the European Central Bank is launching a large scale quantitative easing program.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery were down 0.44% to $1,295.00.
The February contract ended Thursday's session 0.54% higher at $1,300.70 an ounce.
Gold futures strengthened after the ECB announced on Thursday that it would launch a €60 billion monthly bond buying program that would start in March and last until September 2016, in a bid to stave off the threat of deflation in the euro area and boost growth.

In total, the program could total €1.08 trillion, much higher than market expectations for a figure of around €500 billion.
Commenting on the decision, ECB President Mario Draghi acknowledged the action the ECB took last year was “insufficient” to ward off the threat of deflation in the region. The annual rate of inflation in the euro area fell into negative territory last month, dropping 0.2%.
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Crude oil remains supported by news of Saudi King's death

Crude oil futures rose on Friday, pulling away from nearly six-year lows as news of Saudia Arabia King Abdullah's death lent support to the commodity, although sustained concerns over a supply glut continued to weigh.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, U.S. crude oil for delivery in March traded $0.12 or 0.25% higher to $44.43 a barrel during European early afternoon trade.
Prices plummeted $1.47 or 3.08% on Thursday to settle at $46.31.
Futures were likely to find support at $44.78, the low from January 13 and a nearly six-year low and resistance at $49.09, Thursday's high.
Oil prices rallied following reports of the death of Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah amid growing speculation over a possible shift in the kingdom’s policy of allowing crude prices to fall.
The 90-year-old monarch, who was admitted to hospital in December with pneumonia, will be succeeded by his half-brother, Crown Prince Salman.
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Gold pulls away from 5-month highs as ECB rally subsides

Gold prices fell on Friday, pulling away from the previous session's five-month highs hit following news the European Central Bank is launching a large scale quantitative easing program.
On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for February delivery were down 0.44% to $1,295.00.
The February contract ended Thursday's session 0.54% higher at $1,300.70 an ounce.
Gold futures strengthened after the ECB announced on Thursday that it would launch a €60 billion monthly bond buying program that would start in March and last until September 2016, in a bid to stave off the threat of deflation in the euro area and boost growth.

In total, the program could total €1.08 trillion, much higher than market expectations for a figure of around €500 billion.
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GBP/DKK, GBP/NOK, GBP/SEK Exchange Rate Forecast

The Pound Sterling (GBP) exchange rate experienced mixed trading against its Scandinavian peers on Thursday as volatility in the markets remains high and as attention focuses on the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting.

Pound Sterling to Danish Krone (GBP/DKK) Exchange Rate Firmer

The GBP/DKK exchange rate has been trading in a close range this week after the Danish Central Bank took the markets by surprise and cut interest rates further into negative territory on Monday. The move offered support to the Krone as it eased some of the pressure on the currency ahead of today’s ECB policy meeting.
The Danish bank took the pre-emptive action in an attempt to keep the Danish Krone and the nation’s exports competitive. Today, the GBP/DKK exchange rate was trading in a narrow range as domestic Danish data came in mixed and the Pound found support ahead of the ECB meeting.
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Share market rises as traders hope for stimulus package announcement at European Central Bank meeting

The share market has risen again as traders savour the prospect of more than 1 trillion euros of European stimulus.

On Wednesday night, leaks from officials hinted at a bond-buying package of 50 billion euros a month for almost two years, to total 1.1 trillion euros of stimulus.
It would be a fraction of the US quantitative easing programs, known as QE1, QE2 and QE3, but by far Europe's largest financial intervention.
The prospect of such a program, due to be discussed at a European Central Bank meeting, pushed global share markets higher.
Australia was no exception, with the benchmark ASX 200 up 0.5 per cent to 5,420, and the All Ordinaries up 23 points to 5,391.
The major miners led the charge, with BHP Billiton up nearly 3 per cent and Rio Tinto more than 2.5 per cent.
But smaller rival Fortescue was hammered, slumping 6.5 per cent to $2.17.
Oil prices were back on the up overnight.
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Royal Mint starts selling gold online to retail investors

By launching an online facility to buy gold via a dedicated trading platform, the British government’s Royal Mint is entering into competition with retail electronic trading firms, as well as offering British investors a stable investment in commodities

The Royal Mint, Britain’s government-owned body which is authorized to manufacture the coins of the United Kingdom, has announced that it is to operate a service which provides the sale of precious metals to retail clients for physical delivery.
Silver minted bars are available in 100 gram units, while the gold bars range from 1 gram to 100 grams, whereas depending on the price of the precious metals at the time of purchase, a 1 gram gold bar could cost around £40, while 100 grams could be around £2,800.
Established in 886, the Royal Mint has a reputation for solidity and traditional manufacturing of sovereign currency, and is not normally associated with the ultra modern world of online commodities trading, however by providing this service, the organization is to some extent entering into competition with online trading companies, many of which have been keen in recent years to include silver and gold to the range of instruments traded on retail platforms such as MetaTrader 4.
There is, however, another aspect to this service which may appeal specifically to British investors, and that is the direct accessibility of precious metals with no intermediary, and physical delivery at a point in time in which the future of the European Union’s economy is continually under a microscope.
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City National (CYN) Stock Surging in Pre-Market Trading Today on Royal Bank of Canada Buy

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Shares of City National Corp. (CYN - Get Report) are climbing higher by 19.08% to $88.80 in pre-market trading on Thursday morning, following the company's announcement that it has agreed to be acquired by Royal Bank of Canada (RY - Get Report) for approximately $5.4 billion.
City National is a bank and financial holding company. Royal Bank of Canada is a banking company.
"This combination is a compelling opportunity. It will deliver significant value to City National shareholders along with the opportunity to participate in the growth of RBC," City National CEO Russell Goldsmith said in a statement.
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Crude oil trading outlook: futures steady at low levels, EIA inventory data eyed

West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude rose on Wednesday after registering hefty losses the prior session as the market seemed to be drawing support at the current low levels and as BHP Billiton said it will reduce the number of active drill rigs in the US. Upside movement, however, was capped by expectations for another weekly jump in US crude oil stockpiles and the outlook for a stronger dollar.
US crude for delivery in March rose 1.23% by 8:34 GMT to $47.04 per barrel, having shifted in a daily range of $47.13-$46.61. The contract settled 5.4% lower on Tuesday at $46.47 a barrel.
Meanwhile on the ICE, Brent for settlement in the same month rose 1.21% to $48.57 a barrel, having ranged between $48.78 and $48.21 during the day. The contract closed 1.74% lower on Tuesday at $47.99 at a premium of $1.52 to its US counterpart. The gap inched up to $1.53 on Wednesday.
Oil prices plunged this week after the International Monetary Fund followed the World Bank into slashing its global growth outlook for this year and the next, saying that most major economies, apart from the US and Spain, will experience a slowdown in expansion.
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Barys Zhaliba: Dollar’s exchange rate to reach Br18,000 – 20,000

The exchange rate of the ruble is to continue falling in the coming days.
“Salidarnasts” has asked Professor of Economics Barys Zhaliba what is the real exchange rate of the US dollar, for how long the authorities are going to maintain the existing exchange rate and when the equilibrium exchange rate in exchange offices could be expected.
- We have not reached the equilibrium exchange rate yet. It was a local, insignificant devaluation of the ruble. It is a temporary state. I think that the general trend would be oriented to further devaluation, – he said.
When the exchange rate is going to hit the bottom? The economist stresses that in this case many factors should be taken into account.
- The EU countries and the US confirmed that the sanctions against Russia remain in force. Oil prices are falling. These are the two factors which are to put pressure on the Russian economy, – he said.
According to the expert, the Russian market could shrink, and the volume of Belarusian export to Russia could decrease as compared to the last year.
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